The United States is accelerating the process of semiconductor manufacturing reflow, of course, this is not without the cooperation of manufacturing enterprises; On the face of it, it is to solve the problem of chip shortage; But in fact, the development layout of the existing semiconductor is not only a market behavior, but also a government intervention, which is actually a deeper step forward in the trade war.
1、 The Proposal of American Chip Bill
After nearly two years of "bargaining" between members of both parties of the US Congress, a "chip bill" worth more than 50 billion US dollars and intended to revitalize the US semiconductor manufacturing industry came to the table again.
It is reported that this "chip bill" will set up the so-called "barrier" for the semiconductor industry in the United States, weakening its competitors' competitive advantage. According to the provisions of the Act, if enterprises build or expand semiconductor manufacturing plants in other "unfriendly" countries, they will not be able to obtain subsidies provided by the United States government.
The report points out that the chip manufacturing capacity of the United States has dropped from 37% of the global total in 1990 to 12%.
At the same time, in recent decades, because Asian countries can provide a lot of economic incentives and low construction costs, many semiconductor manufacturing industries have moved to Asia. Some national security experts in the United States are worried about the concentration of semiconductor industry in Asia
The United States is increasing its sanctions on China's semiconductor industry. The current information is as follows: First, the sanctions do not cover 14nm, but only involve processes below 14nm; 2、 14 nm and above processes will not be infinitely affected by advanced processes; 3、 All enterprises in China, whether Chinese Mainland enterprises or international enterprises, are prohibited from their advanced manufacturing equipment, equipment installation, maintenance and on-site services; 4、 It is not ruled out that the United States will add new sanctions. At present, the additional terms are also said to impose sanctions on memory chip manufacturing and EDA tools. The United States will prohibit the export of tools for manufacturing NAND chips with more than 128 layers to Chinese Mainland, and prohibit the manufacturing of EDA tools for AI chips; 5、 There is also the follow-up combination boxing.
2、 Analysis and interpretation
The new sanctions reveal a lot of important and effective information, and also show that the U.S. sanctions on Chinese chips are gradually clear.
1. The US government's containment and suppression of China's semiconductor will not change its long-term goal, and will not relax its suppression of China's development of advanced processes and technologies. The core of high-tech manufacturing is chip manufacturing, so the United States will continue to suppress China's chip manufacturing equipment and materials, EDA tools, and memory in a variety of ways.
2. The American style of play has changed from the era of Trump to the current precision sniping and targeted suppression. At present, semiconductor is the core of high-tech, manufacturing is the core of semiconductor, and SMIC is the leader of semiconductor manufacturing in China. If the ban is implemented, SMIC will be most affected.
After all, most of the eight major types of equipment required for chip manufacturing by domestic enterprises are in the development and validation period with advanced processes below 14 nm. In addition to certain market shares of some enterprises in Chinese Mainland in terms of etching machines and cleaning equipment, there is a certain possibility of substitution. The equipment and materials such as lithography machines and ion implanter below 14nm still need time. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment is indispensable. The United States takes equipment as the focus, accurately focuses on key enterprises, and prevents China from developing advanced technology.
3. The advanced process and mature process defined in the United States are dynamically adjusted. Advanced and mature processes are not judged by the nanometer node, but by the progress of China's technological progress. A simple and direct standard is that as long as China has broken through and mass produced the process, it will be adjusted to a mature process.
As long as the products made in China are not advanced. If domestic enterprises have not made 28nm today, the ban may be stuck in 28nm. This kind of "customized" sanctions, which is based on people's preference, dynamically curbs China's development in the semiconductor field.
4. Some end products will be greatly affected. CPU, server, supercomputing, AI, communication chip, etc. using advanced technology in China will be seriously affected, which will further affect the development of China's high-tech.
5. In order to block the development of China's advanced technology and ensure that non American international companies and the United States are on the same front, the United States has adopted a combination of "strike and pull" approach. Not all semiconductor devices banned by the United States from China are provided by American equipment companies.
If the US government wants international equipment manufacturers to give up their big customers in China, it needs to provide chips that can attract these manufacturers to give up their interests in the Chinese market.
Not long ago, the Chip and Science Act passed by the US House of Representatives provided this opportunity. The bill advocates large-scale production expansion and construction in the United States, creating a new market opportunity for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. In the case of limited production capacity of semiconductor equipment manufacturers and threats and inducements from the United States, if the American semiconductor market can make up for their vacancy in the Chinese market, international semiconductor equipment manufacturers may also gradually reduce their support to the Chinese semiconductor market.
3、 Response suggestions
First, give play to the advantages of the new national system and accurately diagnose all links of the industrial chain.
Now the competition in the semiconductor industry is more suitable for the national system. The United States, which likes to emphasize market competition most, has also introduced the American version of the national system. China should give full play to the efficiency and advantages of the new national system, sum up experience on the original basis, keep pace with the times and respond professionally. In practice, we can start from sorting out the industrial chain, especially the core link of China's semiconductor supply chain.
We can start from three dimensions: from the perspective of time attribute, which fields need to be conquered for a long time, and which fields can be broken through for a short time; From the perspective of international attributes, what can be solved through international cooperation and what must be self reliant, accurately analyze the parts that can be solved at the three levels of "cooperation, control and autonomy"; From the perspective of market attributes, which are the links that can be solved through marketization and which must be solved through special means. On the basis of accurate industrial chain diagnosis, different means are adopted for different attributes to suit the case.
Second, we can spread hero posts and actively carry out international cooperation through international cooperation.
China is the world's largest semiconductor importer, including chips, materials, equipment and other fields. At present, the market share of international companies in the Chinese market still has room for improvement, and their market position is more important in the downward phase of the industry. In addition, the long-term sustainable investment of the Chinese government in the semiconductor industry will not change. China has a good market and policy environment. Therefore, the market is China's biggest and long-term advantage. The more difficult it is, the more open it is.
We should actively unite non US equipment manufacturers such as the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea to prevent the US government from using semiconductor equipment to control the sentiment of the chip manufacturing market in Chinese Mainland. From the past experience, if foreign manufacturers' interests are damaged due to the US ban, they will also actively communicate with the US government to safeguard their own interests.
Not long ago, for the "DUV ban" issued by the United States, ASML, a Dutch photolithograph manufacturer, warned that if the United States forced the company to stop selling its mainstream photolithography equipment to Chinese Mainland, the global semiconductor supply chain would face disruption. It can be seen that "those who gain the Tao will help more, while those who lose the Tao will help less". The Chinese industry must adhere to the attitude of keeping the market actively open. At the same time, the more difficult it is to help China's semiconductor industry partners, special industrial policies should be given.
Third, in areas where self-reliance is necessary, we should actively "take the lead" and respond professionally with precise strategies.
For key links, eliminate "pain points", overcome "difficulties", get through "breakpoints", strengthen long boards, fill in weak boards and fill in gaps. The semiconductor ban of the United States has always been targeted at the Chinese industry, which also allows us to see our own shortcomings. In the past, domestic policies were mostly inclusive policies. Now, in the face of targeted attacks from the other side, we need to introduce more targeted, up-to-date, and focused policies from point to point. Although the accuracy of the existing localized equipment, materials, parts and components is still far from the advanced level abroad, the localization supply chain should be given opportunities in the process of process R&D and verification.
The "breakpoints", "pain points" and "difficulties" in the industry shall be classified and corresponding tackling strategies shall be formulated. Actively implement the system of "unveiling the banner and taking the competent enterprises as the main body, and implement special key projects. Low profile and pragmatic, strengthen supply chain security and reduce supply chain risks. Let the industry set the question, the enterprise answer the question, and the market be the examiner, so as to solve the problem, achieve mass production, and solve the bottleneck as the assessment standard.
Fourth, we should actively expand production capacity without fear of the challenges and pressures of the United States' containment of the upstream industrial chain and the decline of downstream demand.
Take the existing leading enterprises as the main focus, focus on the main body, and develop at multiple points. In terms of manufacturing process, there is no need to stick to mature process and advanced process. There is no contradiction between "mature" and "advanced". Without the accumulation of mature process, there will be no breakthrough in advanced process. Without the breakthrough of advanced technology, there will be no upgrading of mature technology. The only advanced theory and the only mature theory are both one-sided and incorrect. The development of mature technology by chip manufacturing enterprises in Chinese Mainland does not mean that they are backward, and the capacity of mature technology is still in short supply.
While tackling advanced processes, local enterprises can take mature processes as a breakthrough, increase production expansion while continuing technological iteration, gradually form a greater influence in the world, and deeply participate in the development of the global semiconductor industry chain.
Fifth, firm faith and confidence, and never relax.
Recently, the implementation of the US Chip Act, the upgrade of the US equipment ban, and some fluctuations in the domestic industry will inevitably generate some negative emotions. As Chinese semiconductor people, we must firmly believe in ourselves and not be transmitted by external emotions. The semiconductor industry is a long-term field, which shoulders the basic responsibility of the development of China's high-tech industry.
No matter how the outside world changes, we need to do our own industry well. When everyone does his own thing well, the future of China's semiconductor industry must be clear. The future of China's semiconductor industry is what China's semiconductor people are like. As long as we have firm faith and confidence, we will be able to use determination, patience and perseverance to build a Chinese core.
Source: Xinmou Research, Dianzhang Financial Account, Wind Information
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